Introduction

India''s foreign policy stance on the Russia-Ukraine war has remained neutral, focusing on maintaining relationships with both sides while abstaining from UN votes against Russia. However, speculation is growing that India may play a more active role in helping to resolve the conflict. This summary outlines India’s potential peacemaking role and the challenges it faces in navigating this complex geopolitical situation.

India’s Advantages in the Geopolitical Arena

• Neutral Stance: India has maintained its long-held non-alignment and strategic autonomy, abstaining from voting against Russia at the UN and refusing to impose Western sanctions on Moscow. This positions India as a potential "honest broker."
• Global South Leadership: During its G20 presidency, India prioritized outcomes that affect the developing world, such as energy and food security, rather than focusing on the war itself.
• Increased Trade with Russia: India''s significant increase in Russian oil imports has been viewed as an assertion of its principles rather than opportunism, further supporting its neutral stance.

Historical Context and India’s Legacy

India''s aspiration to act as a mediator could build on its past achievements, such as Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru’s successful diplomatic efforts in the Cold War era. Nehru mediated between the USSR and Austria and led UN efforts on wars in Korea, Vietnam, and Cambodia. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s potential role as a global mediator would add to India’s long-standing tradition of diplomatic intervention.

Assessment of the War Situation

India’s first step would involve a thorough understanding of the war’s current status. Russian forces hold about one-sixth of Ukrainian territory, while Ukrainian troops maintain their positions elsewhere. Any significant change in this status quo would require either a massive escalation or a negotiated settlement.

International Proposals for Conflict Resolution

• Brazil-China Proposal: Brazil and China’s joint six-point de-escalation proposal, which focused on nuclear safety, humanitarian access, and prisoner exchanges, was rejected by Ukraine.
• Other Proposals: Hungary’s ceasefire proposal and previous mediation efforts by China between Iran and Saudi Arabia serve as examples of failed attempts to negotiate peace.

India’s Approach

Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar outlined a four-point principle for India’s role:

1. This is not the era of war.
2. Solutions cannot be found on the battlefield.
3. Russia must be included in peace talks.
4. India is engaged and concerned about finding a resolution.

India’s Diplomatic Engagements

India’s engagement with both Ukraine and Russia is evidenced by Prime Minister Modi’s visits to Moscow and Kyiv, as well as diplomatic efforts by key officials like National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar. These interactions highlight India’s intent to actively engage in discussions related to the conflict.

Potential Challenges for India

• Internal Conflicts: India faces significant internal issues, such as the conflict in Manipur and regional instability, which may divert attention from foreign mediation efforts.
• Consistency in Foreign Policy: India’s refusal to engage in dialogue with Pakistan raises questions about the consistency of its peace-oriented message.
• Resource Allocation: India must carefully assess whether it can afford to divert resources towards resolving a European conflict when other regions, such as Gaza and Sudan, face higher civilian casualties.

Conclusion: The Timing of India’s Foray into Diplomacy

India’s unique position, straddling both the Global North and South, and its membership in international groups like BRICS and the Quad, provides it with a valuable diplomatic platform. However, the success of its role as a peacemaker depends on timing and the ability to offer a concrete, balanced proposal. As history has shown, nations often turn to diplomacy only after exhausting all other alternatives, and India’s potential entry into this field will be carefully watched.