Context

Under former President Donald Trump, the United States has become emblematic of a global shift where unilateralism is overtaking multilateralism.

• The U.S. sidelined the United Nations and weakened the collective influence of the Global South by prioritizing strategic, commerce-driven bilateral agreements.
• This approach fragments the global system rather than fostering unity.
• The growing power imbalance is so profound that even the July 2025 BRICS Summit did not oppose it.
• The 31-page BRICS Declaration, outlining 126 outcomes, failed to address the decline of multilateralism or highlight the importance of South-South cooperation.
• Instead, unilateral tariffs have become coercive tools used by powerful countries to extract concessions from others, rather than building global consensus.

The U.S. Shift and Global Power Dynamics

• The U.S., recognizing that it can no longer unilaterally shape global frameworks as it did post-World War II, now prioritizes national self-sufficiency and curbing China’s economic rise.
• Over the last 25 years, tools like interconnected trade networks, financial sanctions, and spheres of influence have replaced traditional multilateral institutions as instruments of global power.
• This new reality has left many countries, including India, uncertain about how to navigate the changing global order.

India’s Opportunity Amidst the Decline of Multilateralism

• With its expanding population and economic potential, India must acknowledge the fading role of multilateralism.
• To assert global influence—especially as a leader of the Global South—India should emphasize national prosperity and South-South cooperation, moving beyond dependence on UN voting blocs or outdated multilateral frameworks.
• Setbacks such as losing the UNESCO post to Pakistan illustrate the need for India to exercise strategic autonomy: balancing relations between global powers while safeguarding its core interests.

Shifting Focus East: Trade and Infrastructure Development

• For a self-reliant India (Atmanirbhar Bharat), the focus should pivot from the West towards the East, deepening trade ties with ASEAN countries.
• Export losses to the U.S. (for example, in the steel sector) can be offset by large-scale domestic infrastructure projects — including expressways, high-speed rail, data centers, and world-class universities.
• India should aim to replicate infrastructure growth on the scale of China’s 2013 investments, which propelled rapid development.

India and the Fourth Industrial Revolution

• India’s emerging strength lies in its leadership in the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
• It has surpassed countries like the UK and Germany in generative AI patents, signaling robust innovation capabilities and potential for self-driven economic growth.

Modern Military Strategy and Global Leadership

• Contemporary military strategy prioritizes air defense, satellites, drones, and cyber warfare over traditional ground forces.
• India is well-positioned to lead globally in these areas, reducing dependency on costly arms imports and gaining greater foreign policy flexibility through defence technology spin-offs.

Rethinking Borders and Building Diplomatic Trust

• India is reassessing its longstanding border disputes. Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s recent call for moving past old conflicts has been positively received by China.
• Diplomatic engagement, exemplified by cooperation with Pakistan over the Indus Waters Treaty, could pave the way for peaceful resolutions of disputes in eastern Ladakh and Jammu & Kashmir.
• India’s strategic insight acknowledges that military solutions are unlikely, and long-term growth hinges on diplomatic settlements.

Revitalizing the Global South Through BRICS 2026

• The upcoming BRICS Summit in India (2026) presents a vital opportunity to realign the priorities of the Global South.
• Rather than relying on outdated multilateral bargaining blocs like the G-77 to negotiate with the G-7, the focus should shift to mutual growth and cooperation within the Global South.
• This could involve redesigning tariffs and value chains to direct exports toward rising consumption in developing countries—balancing affordability and support for local industries.
• While a major shift, this approach mirrors the transformative impact multilateralism had in the 1950s.