India’s agriculture is deeply dependent on the monsoon. A good monsoon typically signals hope for higher crop yields and rural prosperity. However, in recent years, even with timely and abundant rainfall, farmers have faced a paradox: severe fertiliser shortages. This mismatch between natural advantage and policy failure has raised serious concerns about agricultural planning and food security.

Despite a favorable monsoon in 2025, farmers across states like Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, and Karnataka have struggled to access essential fertilisers like urea and DAP (Diammonium Phosphate). Long queues, black marketing, and panic buying have become common, especially during the critical sowing periods of the kharif season.

Reasons Behind the Shortage

• Global Supply Disruptions
  • China, India’s largest fertiliser supplier, drastically cut exports due to domestic priorities and geopolitical tensions.
  • Conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war and Israel-Iran tensions have driven up global fertiliser prices and disrupted shipping routes.
• Domestic Policy Constraints
  • Urea prices have been fixed since 2012 at ₹266.5 per bag, discouraging private sector participation.
  • Imports are canalised only through state trading enterprises, limiting flexibility and speed in procurement.

• Poor Planning and Coordination
  • Fertiliser allocation is based on historical consumption, not real-time crop data.
  • Ministries handling weather forecasts, sowing estimates, and fertiliser demand often fail to coordinate effectively.
• Impact on Farmers
  • Farmers growing nitrogen-intensive crops like rice and maize are the worst hit.
  • Many are forced to reduce fertiliser use, leading to lower yields despite good rainfall.
  • The shortage has also led to soil degradation, as over-reliance on urea continues without balanced nutrient application.

Road ahead

Policy Reforms

• • Decontrol fertiliser pricing to allow market forces and private players to respond quickly.
  • Diversify import sources beyond China—explore partnerships with Morocco, Russia, Canada, and others.

Better Forecasting

• • Use real-time satellite data and AI tools to predict crop acreage and fertiliser demand more accurately.

Promote Alternatives

• • Encourage use of bio-fertilisers and nano fertilisers to reduce dependence on imports and improve soil health.

The fertiliser shortage amidst good monsoons is a stark reminder that nature’s bounty alone cannot ensure agricultural success. Without robust planning, responsive policies, and coordinated governance, India’s farmers will continue to struggle. Addressing these gaps is essential not just for farmer welfare, but for national food security and economic stability.